simondelliott

this is one for the pub 

Hi Simon,
 
I think most of the core technology is there (the bike, hi-speed access, alternative energy).  Many of the big “innovations” over the next 20 years may be just smarter and greater uses of what we already have.  The speed of transition could be dictated by reducing physical resources and the global economy….”necessity is the mother of invention!”
 
On the media side, barriers to entry will continue to come down – the top 100 media “brands” of 2028 will be entirely different from today, and represent a smaller % of the total viewing and ad revenue pot.  There will be further de-regulation and a closer relationship between advertisers, sponsors and programme makers (back to the old days again).  Viewers will increasingly work out for themselves the “commercial bits.”
 
N
 

Neil,

I think your right about the core technology. Im expecting the innovation to come in the areas of
“virtual teaming” and new media products, I also feel that we will see an order of magnitude increase in the velocity of transition because there will be a snowball effect on the adoption of virtual products and services.
for example it took ages for twitter to be accepted, but once it was in the public domain, it allowed other innovations like yamma, etc to really steam into the market.

I totally agree with you on the notion of media consumption.

The quality of content will go down.  There will be no more movies made in terms of going to cinemas.  There will be archives of movies and TV shows but little original programming made.  Movie studios have died out as a result of piracy.  Or holographic cinema becomes a way to keep people to come to cinemas.  The technology is intentionally kept from become consumer products.There will be amateur content created all the time and local productions created by community groups and interest groups to keep the mediums alive.Many people will be so dependant on electronic devices that governments will have to worst case scenarios for attacks using electro-magnetic pulses disabling cities and even countries.Depending on the situation with fossil fuel;  there could be new era of sail power.  Most people may not be able to afford air travel.

Sorry Ben – you were maybe expecting something other than some predictions  - perhaps you are unaware but the meaning of the word is” to foretell without the implication of underlying knowledge or expertise”. A prediction is simply an opinion (in this case an opinion based on 25 years experience in the IT, Digital Media and related technology field-). You may agree or disagree with an opinion but it seems childish to dismiss an individual’s opinion as “jibber jabber”. Also somewhat ironic as you then go on to say they weren’t fun! If you’re looking for fun I can direct you to a site more up your street – http://www.bbc.co.uk/cbeebies – more your intellectual level?  Perhaps when you’ve finished your GCSE’s you could come back and give us your predictions.