simondelliott

Future software delivery model

Essentially, big businesses will rent a service, clever charging models will make the services attractive, for example

“If you rent Atos CRM we will reduce churn by …” or “We will give you our manufacturing service for free if we get a slice of the cost reductions …”

Services will be made of applications, but not as we know them, the apps will be clever mashups of different features from other applications and web services,

This whole layer will be very confusing with millions of interdependent services and features,

Ultimately a small number of massive massive cloud vendors will provide the hosting, there will be alternatives but they will be a bit flakey,

Why waste time on categorization?

If you store your information in folders or on a network share or even in some document mangement systems then you may be at a disadvantage …

Filing behaviors such as tagging, categorization and placement within a hierarchy are a cost on your time and therefore a form of waste.
However, If the time to recall the item being stored is reduced by more than the cost of filing then it’s a worth while activity.

Hierarchical solutions to information storage have a high upfront investment in waste (the hierarchy itself), where as denormalized “broad and flat” solutions have a low initial investment in waste.

The reason that there is a swing towards the later solution is because modern search engines have a greater semantic understanding of the content and can recall faster, offloading the manual input needed by the operator onto a machine.

If you look to the future you will see that there is a massively increasing number of web based features for authoring and collaboration. These are either very low cost or GPL products. The idea that we would choose not to use this functionality and ignore efficiencies and cost reductions that it offers is unrealistic, the idea that a single supplier can meet the demand for all this new functionality is also unrealistic.

To have more business agility and lower costs a company must embrace a heterogeneous environment.

Technology predictions to 2030

Ive been gazing into my crystal ball, thinking about the future and trying to make some sense of whats happening in the techno world. The long and short of it is that I have come up with some technology and social predictions.
They are based on market analysis, trend extrapolation and good old fashioned intuition.

Some of these predictions are contraversial (deliberatly so), but times are changing and things happen fast.

• 2010 Microsoft give up on vista
• 2010 Ubuntu is home standard
• 2011 IT becomes all about mobile
• 2011 silverlight dies
• 2011 3d standardization
• 2011 Windows applications disappear
• 2012 Hacking event causes world turmoil
• 2012 Cloud replaces servers
• 2012 Diverse office computers is standard
• 2012 International security database
• 2012 Designers take over from developers
• 2012 Email becomes obsolete
• 2012 flexible screens on packaging
• 2012 low cost genetic sequencer
• 2012 MRI scanning in doctors surgery
• 2012 News papers will die out
• 2013 Online democratic systems
• 2013 AI services emerge
• 2013 removable media becomes obsolete
• 2013 Systems Integration de-skilled
• 2013 Television replaced by online
• 2013 Google not top search provider
• 2014 Media overtake computing companies
• 2014 VB script dies
• 2014 all software is either service or open source
• 2014 Virtual worlds used by business
• 2014 Apple becomes biggest content provider
• 2015 brain pace makers become common place
• 2015 Employees use their own computers
• 2015 flexible screens become standard
• 2015 getting lost is impossible
• 2015 Google is top enterprise software provider
• 2015 governments stop buying servers
• 2015 handheld genetic sequencer
• 2016 Human lands on mars
• 2016 implants into humans become common place
• 2016 IT services becomes about data meaning
• 2016 It will be possible to index video
• 2016 Linux becomes is standard OS
• 2017 Full scale cyber war
• 2017 opensource hardware
• 2017 programming is obsolete skill
• 2017 Relational databases are obsolete
• 2018 business delegated to AI services
• 2018 Imagination more valuable than skill
• 2018 The office becomes history
• 2018 Call center becomes the past
• 2019 Automomous robotic toys
• 2019 Printers disappear
• 2019 Mobile phone becomes history
• 2019 weather news mega important
• 2019 Semantic web services
• 2019 Opensource car
• 2020 Talking computers
• 2020 HUD is fashion item
• 2020 Petrol Engine abolished
• 2020 Tabacco smoking illegal
• 2020 riding a bicycle becomes the norm
• 2020 Office blocks repurposed
• 2021 Ubiquitious internet
• 2021 Intelligence in almost all devices
• 2022 global state controlled media
• 2022 the depression is over
• 2023 Paper outlawed
• 2023 All knowledge electronic
• 2023 Autonomous vehicles
• 2024 natural language programming
• 2024 English replaces all lanuages
• 2025 world covered by CCTV
• 2026 querty keyboard dies
• 2027 most work from home
• 2027 Writing not taught
• 2028 Astro Holidays

How to size an online community

Following the success of my thoughts on online comunities Ive decided to coint my own unit of mesure.

The Internt Gram or ig is a measure of the information in a website, discussion board or onlien community.

You can read all about it in my page on the subject here How big is an online community.

Whats important for a Media buisiness in 2009

In the past 3 years the cost of storage and distribution of media content has nose dived. This change has overturned the traditional approach to media marketing based on the pareto principle where 80% of your sales is from 20% of your catalogue; and has replaced it with the long tail approach.

Content owners that fail to recognize this are in big BIG trouble.

The back catalog is no longer an expensive burden requiring highly trained film archivists and specialists. It is instead a rich mine, full of hidden gems, and precious artifacts. But as the market becomes saturated the window of opportunity for the exploitation of this catalog … is closing, content owners need to digitize, index and sell their content while the price is still high.

The diversity of content is ever increasing. Lectures, animations, talks and TV programs are being distributed on nearly every conceivable subject can be consumed ondemand and online. Subsequently new amateur and semi professional content brands are appearing, often with massive following. Media aggregation based companies are keen to own and exploit these new brands.

Is is a safe prediction that the daily news papers will be dropping their print versions soon, and as this is this is as a reaction to social change rather than a driver it is also very unlikely that we will be seeing a repeat of the Wapping dispute.

The music industry is the pensioner of the media world, its nicely tucked up in its woollen blanket watching the world go by from the bay windows of its retirement home, it occasionally gets out of its chair and shakes its rhythm stick at a metaphorical youngster, for example associating music purchase with another retail purchase, or threatening to sue illegal down loaders or even putting on a big stadium gig. Music exec’s have to face up to the fact they must change their delivery format. Last.fm is an example of where they are going.

Note that apples recent announcement that they are going to remove DRM is a massive leap forward (especially if yo like live music)

There have been many developments to enable media consumption on the cell phone. Nearly all of these initiatives are in failure mode, however the media distribution organizations and hardware manufactures are only increasing their efforts. There is a very high reward for the company that unlocks this potential market.

Just beware … in no other sector is Sturgeon’s revelation more relevant than media .

Labeling or tagging content in a wiki

Only use labels that refer to the content of the article rather than the type of article.

i.e. if you are writing up the social networking label it with
Good >> Social, Network, Web2, Media
Bad >> wiki, page

Tag clouds are a good navigation tool when they are about context rather than construct.
Construct is better conveyed to the use in a more traditional navigation tool such as a menu, hierarchy or list. So try and highlight the content with the labels. A good way to think of what content is good to label is to think of the article as a classified add, where every word costs you money.

shameless self promotion

so you’ve made your site and no ones reading it …
either
get a professional production team
or …

1 – GET OTHER PEOPLE TO LINK TO YOU
this is THE  most important thing
make sure that the words in or around the link are good

2 – CHANGE THE FRONT PAGE CONTENT EVERY DAY
Google must see your rate of change

3 – the server side technology does not matter, microsoft, java, php whatever
4 – use permalinks (ie www.foobar.com/sales/information is better than www.foobar.com/contents.aspx?page=7867576564)
5 – use well formed html
6 – register the site with google
7 – register it with every other site you can find, especially … facebook, myspace, linked, technorati, bebo, project path,
8 – get other people to write up your site, especially the popular bloggers (do you know Scot Mc Arther and Steve Nimmonds?)
9 – book mark it in delicious,
10 – book mark it in stunble upon
11 – put an article on you site and digg it
12 – get everyone you know to digg it
13 – add digg links, (stumble upon, facebook, you tube, … )
14 – keep the html simple, best way is using lynx or an audio reader (if it sounds like nonsence then your site is wrong)
15 – put a video on to you tube that links to your site
16 – get the BBC to write about your site
17 – lookup SEO on the web and follow instructions
18 – allow comments
19 – use google analyitics
20 – constantly monitor google analyitics, add it to you igoogle, rss reader, livelink page,
21 – be controversial with your content
22 – use alt text on content pictures
23 – get your site in the press

be patient

Can government cut costs with social networking? #2

The Gartner prediction is that government will use social networking for cost cutting.  I have written many articles now and none have caused so much controversy this topic.

This is where the controversy starts!

On the one hand the social network is the perfect way to identify some ones needs and NetMums is a great example of how sharing information can really improve young mothers lives.

On the other hand the social network relies on its members contributing and as such is an ideal way to farm data, and limit the distribution of information.

The UK has a long and chequered history of engineering social change, and engineering … errr … engineering. We are behind many of the “isums” and machines that have shaped the world and in the next few years we will see the marriage of technology and social policy.

I can not predict the outcome of this union, but it is a safe bet that the UK will first see the changes.

.

Media mEdia meDia medIa mediA

I recently attended the mediatech 100 event at the Russel hotel.

From what I gather the economic down turn is going to actually benefit the media businesses as evidence from the previous recessions indicate that reduced spending money, causes consumers to stay at home …. and spend more money on media consumption!

The VC’s and business angels are especially backing games, virtual worlds and mobile applications that have micro-transaction engines.

Can government cut costs with social networking?

I have just read this http://www.silicon.com/publicsector/0,3800010403,39325058,00.htm?r=2

This point of view is fundamentally flawed and forgets that “government” is the action of authority, and that it imposes jurisdiction without unanimous, majority or even minority consensus. Where as the social network is the interaction of individuals with other individuals using technology.

The responsibility of government is to improve the lives of individuals via the application of abstraction i.e. legislation against cigarette advertising. Its judgements are guided by the research that it commissions, or secret information that it gathers.

Today the contents of the social network is massively influenced by the intelligentsia, who are the early adaptors of the technology, but tomorrow it will have mass market adoption.

Information and recommendations that can be derived from the contents of a social network will tomorrow reflect the reactionary majority view. It would be dangerous and irresponsible to allow research and policy to be solely guided by such networks.

The eminent thinkers of my great nation have a long and checked history of engineering large scale social change, and engineering large scale … errr … engineering.

We are behind many of the “isums” and machines that have shaped the world. Our age sees the direct conjunction of the two. I can not predict the outcome of this union, but it is a safe bet that the UK will first see the changes.